You just survived Stockton’s hottest summer ever, its hottest by far. And a new climate model predicts the heat will get radically worse, though not in your lifetime if you’re lucky.
Today’s forecast called for a high of 102º, Thursday 103º, Friday 101º. If you feel summer heat like this has scorched on and on, and is unprecedented, you’re right.
“So far it’s been the hottest summer on record for Stockton, no surprises there,” said Scott Rowe, a meteorologist and senior service hydrologist with the California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento.
By hottest “on record,” Rowe means Stockton meteorological records going back to 1893.
This summer blew 131 years of records out of the tub. And, “Of course, you still have a little bit of summer left to go,” said Rowe.
Labor Day may mark the unofficial end of summer, but it ain’t over till it’s officially over when Autumn starts Sept. 22. Is this heat streak summer’s sadistic swan song? Or will the oven keep a-cookin’?
Things certainly have changed. Stockton’s old normal average was 16 days 100º or hotter per summer. Though coastal residents seem to think it’s Death Valley here, 16 days is not so bad sprinkled over a 96-day season.
Over the past decade, however, due to global warming, the average increased to 19 100º days. Nothing to jump for joy about, but still tolerable.
But this summer saw a dam-burst of heat: 34 days at 100º or higher with at least three more forecast—five weeks—and that doesn’t even count all the baking days of 95º to 99º.
36 days at 100º or higher — five weeks — and that doesn’t even count all the baking days of 95º to 99º.
And the hottest days were hotter. For perspective, the goal of the 2015 Paris climate accord was to limit earth’s temperature increase to 3.6º Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels, and ideally 2.7 º.
Bad news, Paris: Stockton is running 4.2º above its historic average this summer. This city is a melting model of climate change.
Severe heat stresses city people. Stockton opened cooling zones 20 times. Six public safety employees, police or firefighters, suffered rhabdomyolysis (you can call it rhabdo for short), a rapid breakdown of muscle, accompanied by pains, vomiting, and confusion that, if untreated, can cause acute kidney injury, said Stockton Public Information Officer Connie Cochran.
All got treatment and recovered, Cochran said.
As you can see from your wilting garden, agriculture, San Joaquin County’s economic engine, also suffered. The main concern was field workers, said Andrew Genasci, executive director of the San Joaquin County Farm Bureau.
“A lot of guys are adjusting hours, having their employees come in early,” Genasci said. “As soon as it gets to 95 or so they typically start sending people home, just for safety.”
But that, “leaves the growers in a horrible position,” Genasci said. “It’s not safe to have guys out there, but at the time, you’re sending people home, they’re working less, you’re making less.”
Overnight temperatures are rising, too. Crops get no respite. Almonds don’t grow to full size. Walnut meat becomes discolored and unmarketable. Cows give less milk, said Genasci.
What will the future bring? Climate scientists at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science created a map program that forecasts the climate of cities 60 years from now if current fossil-fuel consumption levels continue.
“Summers in Stockton, California are expected to be 9.5ºF warmer…” says the program. “Winters are expected to be 6.6ºF warmer and 23% wetter.”
Almost 10º hotter!
It doesn’t take a math wizard to add 9.5º to Stockton’s current hot spell: 111.5º today, 112.5º Thursday, 110.5º on Friday.
No thanks.
The map program even presents Stockton’s “best climate analog,” a California city that presently experiences the weather Stockton is predicted to have in the 2080s.
Where, you say? Located 45 minutes east of San Diego, Pine Valley is a scenic, back-country village perched 3,700 feet up in the Cuyamaca Mountains between two desert regions. It’s so far south it’s almost in Mexico.
And it’s hot. But it also snows a bit in winter. Doubtful — is this really our future? — I called Matt Fitzpatrick, the professor and climate researcher at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science who created the climate map. Fitzpatrick conceded the analog was imperfect.
“For the purposes of communication, the map shows the best match,” Fitzpatrick said. “It’s just finding the place that’s most similar. But if you’ve got an apple in a bag of oranges you can’t find an orange that looks exactly like the apple. “
Fitzpatrick scoured the earth for other Stockton analogs. He came up with North Africa, southern Spain, parts of the Middle East, parts of central and western Australia. “That gives you a broader picture of Stockton’s future climate.”
North Africa. Yikes. That’s camel territory.
The heat is sabotaging one of Stockton’s greatest assets: the enjoyment of summer. In fact, if it keeps rising, the city will cease to have a Mediterranean climate by the Koppen Climate Classification System and cross a threshold into the Mid-Latitude Steppe climate of south-Valley cities such as Fresno or Bakersfield. That would be the loss of a climatological birthright.
Imperfect comparison though it may be, I did call Pine Valley and spoke with Debi McNamer, a recently retired coffee shop owner.
“We’re high desert,” McNamer said. “Today it’s 101 degrees.”
But it hits 110º, records say.
My favorite Pine Valley factoid, from Wikipedia: “The population was 1,510 at the 2010 census, up from 1,501 at the 2000 census.”
As an aside, I asked McNamer what life in Pine Valley is like.
“Not a lot to do here,” she replied. “There’s a gas station with a little convenience store, one restaurant, one Frosty burger — it used to be a Dairy Queen — that’s busy on the weekends. We have a church and a Mountain Market and that’s about it.”
The heat persists all the way through October, McNamer added.
No thanks, again.
Fitzgerald’s column runs on Wednesdays. On Twitter and Instagram as Stocktonopolis. Email: mfitzgeraldstockton@gmail.com