San Joaquin County’s output of agriculture products declined last year as grapes, milk, almonds and cherries fell in value, according to new data.
Released last month, the San Joaquin County Crop Report, a yearly economic data study that measures sales, crop yields and industry trends, found decreases in key areas of the county’s agricultural operations in 2023.
Though the county still produced $3.2 billion in agricultural products, the local industry experienced a $24 million reduction in revenue from the previous year. The report also found that the number of agricultural jobs in the county continues to decline, seeing record lows over the last 14 years.
Cherries, almonds, grapes and milk — all of which are in the top 10 agricultural commodities produced in the area — saw a combined loss of $92.5 million.These commodity declines are attributed to decreasing yield, acreage and prices, according to Lewis Haiden, SJ County agriculture and standards inspector, during the Aug 27. SJC Board of Supervisors.
The Top Five Commodities
Of the top five agricultural products produced in San Joaquin County, only Eggs and Chickens saw an increase, generating around $64 million last year. This is due to an increase in chicken production and rising prices, Lewis said.
In 2022, the California poultry industry was ravaged by a nationwide case of avian influenza. Millions of chickens were culled, creating shortages in poultry supplies and skyrocketing prices for consumers. That year, over half a million chickens and turkeys in California had the avian flu.
The threat of avian flu appears to have since subsided in San Joaquin County, according to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Only 168 confirmed cases of avian flu were confirmed in the county in 2023, with no case reported in 2024 as of the time of reporting.
The remaining products that make up the county’s top 10 agricultural exports — walnuts, tomatoes, cattle and blueberries — saw an increase while other crops, including those used for livestock feed, fell by around $6 million.
However, a bright spot from the data shows that, despite the slight decrease, the value of agricultural production in the county has steadily increased by about 23% since 2019 growing from $2.6 billion to $3.2 billion in 2023.
Milk prices also fell throughout 2023 from $4.01 per gallon by nearly 20 cents, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. Milk also continues to be the number one agricultural product produced in San Joaquin County for the second year in a row, beating out the former title holder almonds in 2021.
Decline of Almonds
The falling dominance of almonds in the county can be attributed to a surplus that has lowered the nut’s value due to a decrease in consumer demand, says Jeffery Michael, a professor and the director of public policy at University of the Pacific.
“There has been a tremendous increase in the supply of tree nuts. Ten years ago, prices rose to incredible highs as demand expanded and the profitability was tremendous,” Michael said. “Supply responded to these prices.”
This resulted in a saturated market.
SJC farms in recent years have doubled their almond acreage from just under 40,000 acres in 2008 to over 100,000 acres in 2022. The shift to nut orchards also meant a decline in vegetable crops in SJ County, Michael said.
Decreasing Ag Jobs
In his report on the “Economic Impact of San Joaquin County Agricultural” published in July, Michael noted that the shift in crops, among other factors, is contributing to the trend of declining agriculture jobs.
Agriculture jobs fell from a high of about 16,500 in 2015 to around 13,700 in 2022, according to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. This 17.5% decrease has brought the number of agricultural jobs in the county to the industry’s lowest level in over a decade. Nationally, Agricultural worker jobs are projected to fall by 2% from 2023 to 2033.
Michael says this can be seen as a positive trend for SJC, noting that weekly wages have increased by 62% and technological advances in the field are improving the quality of agriculture jobs in the county.
“By 2022, the average annual wage in the sector was nearly $45,000, exceeding annual wages in the leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and other service industries in San Joaquin County,” Michael said. “Thus, the employment picture in agriculture can be seen as positive despite a decline in the overall number of jobs.”
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