As Democrats swept to victories across the country in Tuesday’s midterm elections, Republicans in San Joaquin County found reasons to celebrate much closer to home.
From Lodi’s City Council to the mayor’s office in Manteca, Republican-backed candidates emerged with substantial leads in several municipal contests, even as Democrats maintained their advantage in major congressional and statewide races.
In Lodi, three conservative-endorsed candidates led their respective City Council races. In Manteca, Republican-backed challenger Jacob Naven widened his lead over Democratic-endorsed Mayor Gary Singh, while Stockton Councilmember Michael Blower maintained a commanding advantage in his bid for reelection.
By Monday, seven of eight municipal candidates endorsed by Central Valley Impact Republicans were leading their races, compared with three of nine candidates endorsed by the San Joaquin County Democratic Party, according to a review of unofficial election returns and the organizations’ published endorsements.
Those leads largely held through Monday’s latest round of counting, as San Joaquin County election officials reduced the number of ballots awaiting processing to an estimated 6,531.
The Registrar of Voters reported counting 47,403 additional ballots since Friday, bringing the countywide total to 214,691. Another 1,849 ballots remained subject to signature or identification issues that voters may still be able to resolve.
Although the shrinking backlog has brought several contests closer to resolution, election officials do not provide estimates of outstanding ballots by individual race.
The results raise a question that national election returns alone cannot answer: Why did Republican-backed candidates perform so well in local contests across a county where voters favored Democrats in many of the year’s highest-profile races?
The answer, political observers and party leaders say, involves more than a simple divide between Republicans and Democrats. Political geography, candidate recognition, community relationships and campaign organizing can influence municipal elections in ways that broader partisan trends do not always capture.
California’s Constitution requires city elections to be nonpartisan. Political parties cannot formally nominate candidates for municipal offices, and candidates’ party preferences cannot appear on the ballot.
Political organizations can still endorse candidates and mobilize voters on their behalf, allowing party affiliation to influence elections even when voters do not see those labels on their ballots.
“The party signal is so important in American politics,” said Keith Smith, a political science professor at the University of the Pacific. “It is the primary lens through which people learn about, interpret, and then act on political questions.”
Smith said voters in nonpartisan races must rely on campaign literature, political endorsements, direct outreach and local news coverage to determine where candidates stand.
But the absence of party labels is only part of the explanation. San Joaquin County’s cities also have markedly different political compositions, making Republican-backed victories more predictable in some communities than others.
In Lodi, where Republicans have long maintained a stronger political presence, the results followed a familiar pattern. Michael Carouba led the District 1 contest, while incumbents Lisa Craig-Hensley and Cameron Bregman held leads in Districts 2 and 3, respectively. All three received endorsements from Central Valley Impact Republicans.
Republicans outnumbered Democrats among Lodi’s registered voters by more than 3,000 as of Oct. 19, according to the California Secretary of State’s latest voter registration report. The city had 15,289 registered Republicans compared with 12,099 Democrats.
Lodi’s Republican registration advantage distinguishes it from Stockton, Manteca and Tracy, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans.
Countywide, Democrats held an advantage of nearly 47,000 registered voters. As of Oct. 19, they accounted for 40.6% of San Joaquin County’s registered voters, compared with 29.3% for Republicans, according to the Secretary of State.
Smith said those differences help explain why Republican-backed candidates can succeed in more conservative communities while Democrats prevail in elections encompassing larger populations.
In broader elections, votes from larger Democratic-leaning population centers can outweigh Republican advantages in smaller communities, Smith explained.
Monday’s unofficial returns showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton in San Joaquin County with nearly 58% of the vote. Democratic Rep. Josh Harder and Assemblymember Rhodesia Ransom also secured victories in their respective races, according to The Associated Press.
Republican strength, however, was not limited to municipal contests.
In Assembly District 9, Republican incumbent Heath Flora maintained a substantial lead over Democratic challenger Matthew Adams despite months of unfavorable publicity surrounding allegations about his personal conduct and questions about campaign spending.
In San Joaquin County’s portion of the district, Flora held 53.09% of the vote, compared with 46.91% for Adams, according to Monday’s unofficial returns. The district also includes portions of neighboring counties.
The lead followed a turbulent period for Flora, who lost his position as Assembly Republican leader after breaking with members of his party on legislation involving local sales taxes. He also faced scrutiny over alleged extramarital affairs and campaign expenditures, including reporting by the conservative California Post.
His troubles extended into the June primary, when Republican committees in San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Amador counties endorsed one of his opponents rather than the incumbent.
But Flora was competing in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats among registered voters by roughly 10 percentage points, giving him an established partisan advantage despite the controversies.
His campaign also entered the final stretch with a considerable fundraising advantage. As Stocktonia previously reported, Flora had raised more than $611,000 by Sept. 19, compared with approximately $25,000 for Adams.
In municipal contests, where party affiliations do not appear on the ballot, Republican-backed candidates also remained competitive across several communities with Democratic registration advantages.
In Stockton, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one, Republican incumbent Blower held 58.40% of the vote against challenger Jessica Toccoli in District 3, maintaining a lead of more than 2,100 votes.
Blower received endorsements from Republican organizations, but the race did not pit candidates endorsed by the county’s two major political parties against each other. The San Joaquin County Democratic Party did not endorse anyone in District 3, and Blower entered the election as an incumbent.
In Manteca, however, the partisan contrast was more pronounced.
Naven, a small-business owner endorsed by Republican organizations, led Singh, the Democratic-endorsed incumbent mayor, with 51.91% of the vote, a margin of 1,065 votes.
His lead grew from 696 votes Friday, strengthening his position as the county’s remaining ballot backlog continued to shrink. Election officials have not declared a winner.
Republican-backed Councilmember David Breitenbucher also held a commanding lead in District 3, receiving nearly 70% of the vote.
Still, the results were not uniformly favorable to conservatives. Democratic-endorsed incumbent Mike Morowit maintained a substantial lead over two challengers in Manteca’s District 4 council race, including Republican-backed Dani Bettencourt.
In Tracy, Republican-backed Jass Sangha led Democratic-endorsed Robin Cole by just 41 votes in the District 1 council race, while Democratic-backed Mayor Dan Arriola maintained a comfortable advantage in his reelection bid.
Sangha’s margin remained among the narrowest in the county, leaving the outcome particularly sensitive to ballots still awaiting processing.
For local Republican leaders, the strong showing reflected both the candidates’ individual appeal and a concerted effort to strengthen the party’s political organization.
David Cushman, chairman of the San Joaquin County Republican Party, said his organization spent the past two years raising money, building support and expanding its voter outreach operation. He described the effort as one of the party’s most extensive in more than a decade.
“We made over 100,000 voter contacts on behalf of our endorsed candidates in the last month of this campaign throughout San Joaquin County, reaching voters in every district where we were supporting candidates,” Cushman said in an interview with Stocktonia.
The effort included volunteers knocking on doors, making phone calls and speaking directly with residents, he said.
Cushman attributed the party’s success partly to candidates whose experience and community involvement appealed to voters beyond traditional Republican constituencies.
He also argued that conservative priorities, including fiscal responsibility, government efficiency and careful management of public spending, resonated with residents deciding who should lead their cities.
In Manteca, Naven offered a more personal explanation for his lead over Singh, emphasizing nearly two decades of community involvement rather than political endorsements.
Naven said his work coaching youth sports, operating a business and serving on nonprofit boards helped him establish relationships with residents regardless of their political affiliations.
“I have been a little league coach, soccer coach and most recently for four years the Sierra High School tennis coach so my involvement in the community is non-partisan,” Naven said, adding that hundreds of families had seen his commitment to serving residents regardless of their religion or political affiliation.
He also credited his ability to communicate with Spanish-speaking residents and his relationships with former employees and local families for helping him build support.
Although Republican organizations endorsed his campaign, Naven questioned how much political endorsements ultimately mattered to Manteca voters.
“Endorsements don’t seem to matter to the city of Manteca if I win it had to do with integrity this election,” he said.
Naven also cited dissatisfaction with Singh’s leadership, including pending misdemeanor election-related charges stemming from an August video in which a local chiropractor offered a $50 discount to people who said they voted for the incumbent mayor.
San Joaquin County prosecutors charged Singh and chiropractor Matthew Alexander with two election-related misdemeanors each in September.
Singh has previously said the chiropractor made the offer independently and that he did not coordinate it with his campaign. He has said he intends to address the charges through the legal process. The allegations remain unresolved.
For San Joaquin County Democrats, the Republican-backed candidates’ performance does not necessarily indicate a shift in the county’s political direction.
Manuel Zapata, speaking on behalf of the San Joaquin County Democratic Party, cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from a limited number of municipal contests.
“I wouldn’t read too much into a handful of races as some larger political shift,” Zapata said.
Zapata emphasized that Stockton, Tracy, Manteca and Lodi have distinct political environments, shaped by different candidates, local issues, district boundaries and relationships within their communities.
He also noted that the Democratic Party’s endorsement process involved local Democratic clubs and that some candidates never sought the organization’s support.
“In Stockton, we respected our clubs’ endorsements and followed our process,” Zapata said. “There were also candidates who never sought our endorsement, which is important to point out.”
The county Democratic Party endorsed Tamica Small in Stockton’s District 1 council race but did not endorse candidates in Districts 3 or 5. Small trailed incumbent Michele Padilla in Monday’s returns, with Padilla holding nearly 57% of the vote.
Elsewhere, Democratic-endorsed candidates led the Tracy mayoral race, Manteca’s District 4 council contest and the Mountain House City Council election, where Ronna Green held the top position in a contest for two seats.
The different endorsement records offer a snapshot of the organizations’ electoral fortunes but do not necessarily measure their effectiveness. The groups supported different candidates, faced varying levels of competition and operated in communities with distinct political characteristics.
Several Republican-backed candidates also entered the election as incumbents, further complicating efforts to identify a broader partisan trend.
Zapata acknowledged that not every Democratic-endorsed candidate would prevail but praised those who entered local politics, particularly first-time candidates who brought new perspectives to their communities.
He said the party would examine its performance, strengthen relationships across the county and continue supporting emerging candidates ahead of the 2028 elections.
Cushman, meanwhile, said Republicans intend to expand their organizing efforts ahead of 2028, while Zapata emphasized recruiting new candidates and strengthening relationships across San Joaquin County.