Even though Stockton saw a 20% increase in homicides , overall violent crime continued to fall last year, says City Manager Harry Black.
In an interview with Stocktonia in reaction to the latest homicide figures, Black cited several key indicators as evidence that violent “crime is down.” As proof, he pointed to:
· Non-fatal shootings fell 21% in 2024 compared to the year before, from 141 to 112.
· The overall number of crimes classified as violent slipped each year between 2020 and 2023, and are likely to show a decrease again in 2024 when the final numbers are tallied.
· Based on reported crimes through November, it appears that rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults will be down for the year.
· Stockton police took 773 guns off the streets during 2024 through buybacks and seizures, compared to 610 in 2023.
Homicides rose to 54 last year, up from 45 in 2023, But officials aren’t alarmed. It appears the leap was driven in large part by more killings tied to domestic or family disputes. While tragic, they don’t present a threat to public the same way as homicides arising from street crimes.
Nine homicides last year were domestic related, up from one the year before. Until last year Stockton hadn’t seen more than six homicides blamed on domestic strife in a single year since 2014 with one exception: 2020, the year of pandemic lockdowns, when there were 16, city figures show.
One homicide is too many, Black said. But even with last year’s increase, the city is still solidly within its historical trend. City figures show that the total number of homicides in a single year over the past decade have ranged from 33 in 2018 to 56 in 2020.
The city’s strategy aims to prevent crimes before they happen. And if that fails, follow up with police work.
“Stockton has a very robust, very intentional crime fighting and crime prevention model,” Black said. “We use the carrot and the stick.”
The carrot is the city’s Office of Violence Prevention. It helps coordinate programs involving outreach workers called “peacekeepers” who intervene directly with gang members and other individual considered the most dangerous. The goal is to try to prevent trouble before it starts, including trying to address underlying causes like helping a high-risk individual find a job or keep food on the table.
As proof of its effectiveness, Black pointed to a University of Pennsylvania study published last July in the scholarly journal Criminology and Public Policy.
Stockton’s program “shows that treated gang members were less likely to be shot and reduced their violent offending relative to similar untreated gang members. The focused deterrence impacts also appear to spill over to gang members who were socially connected to treated gang members,” the report states.
While the city has struggled to keep its program going at times over the years, Black said it’s been solidly in place in the five years he’s been city manager. “The key with these programs is sustaining them, being consistent. That’s the key to success,” he added.