Local politicos call it “The Switch,” and the last-minute swapping of races by some candidates and the sudden reappearance of a former congressman have added a new twist to the battle for the local state offices.
The moves have highlighted the different factions in the Democratic Party, and Republicans can take advantage of the political landscape.
Voters go to the polls Tuesday to complete the first step of replacing incumbents in the California state Senate District 5 and state Assembly District 13 positions. Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua, former Rep. Jerry McNerney, both Democrats, and Republican businessman Jim Shoemaker battle for the right to replace Sen. Susan Talamantes Eggman, who will term out at the end of this year. Democrats Rhodesia Ransom and Edith Villapudua and Republican Denise Aguilar Mendez hope to succeed Carlos Villapudua, who is currently serving his second term.
The top two candidates in the primaries meet in the general election on Nov. 5. Voters in both districts lean democratic, and the seats have been held by Democrats for decades. In a state that allows the two candidates, regardless of political affiliation, with the most votes in a primary election to advance to the general election, it would be reasonable to assume that San Joaquin County voters will be choosing between two Democrats in November.
However, for the democratic candidates, Tuesday’s primary election may not be so clean cut — and may well decide the fate of the general election.
Which brings us to “The Switch.”
Carlos Villapudua, initially had registered to run for reelection in the 13th Assembly District but switched places with his wife Edith Villapudua, who initially registered to run for the 5th Senate District, just before the December candidate filing deadline. But that wasn’t the only 11th-hour shuffle. Edith Villapudua’s original opponent in the senate district, Ransom, then switched to the assembly race, while McNerney soon threw his hat in the ring to run against Carlos Villapudua.
Keith Smith, an associate professor of political science at University of the Pacific, believes the shuffle can likely be chalked up to Democratic Party infighting and political maneuvering. McNerney and Ransom likely have more traditional support from the Democratic Party machinery, Smith said, while he described Edith and Carlos Villapudua as more of party outsiders.
Traditionally, Carlos Villapudua said, a state assemblymember will typically run for the state senate when a seat in their district opens up.
But that wasn’t his original plan.
“We weren’t thinking that, because I am not the member that immediately starts thinking of what’s next,” Carlos Villapudua said. “I was very happy in the assembly.”
However, the assemblyman says that going into this election was like playing a game of chess. While it may have seemed like a last-minute decision, Villapudua said discussions about switching races had been happening early on. After considering polling data, the size of the senate district, the other competitors in the race and Villapudua’s de facto incumbent status as a current member of the California Legislature, ultimately it would be beneficial for both candidates that Carlos and Edith should switch races.
Smith also noted that a former congressional representative running for the state legislature isn’t typical. The traditional path leads the other way, serving in state government before moving onto the federal level. Though he acknowledged that it isn’t out of the ordinary for state legislators to go into local government after they’ve termed out.
McNerney, who stepped down from his congressional seat for the 11th District following redistricting, assumed he’d had enough of politics, but said that changed after learning that Carlos Villapudua was going to switch with his wife.
“I thought, you know, Carlos doesn’t really represent my point of view on a lot of issues,” McNerney said, adding that he saw it as “an opportunity to make a difference in Sacramento” and “get things done.”
He wants to continue the work he’d done in Congress for nearly two decades at a more local level without having to contend with what he described as the more “brutal” partisanship that occurs in Washington D.C.
“I’m gonna have to focus more on local issues, which is great,” McNerney said. “Because when you focus on local issues you make a difference in people’s lives that you can see everyday. So that excites me.”
McNerney’s campaign confirmed to Stocktonia that the former congressman had also been asked by community members to run for the seat, but did not specify on who those community members were.
Ransom was quite blunt when asked why she believed the switch happened.
“A day before filing closed, the Villapuduas switched races. They wanted to trick the voters so that Edith could run for her husband’s seat unopposed,” Ransom said. “I was always aware that there was this potential of something like this happening. And so, it became clear that they were aiming to build a dynasty in the (Central Valley) so that they could get both seats for their family and put corporations ahead of people.”
The Republican in the assembly race, Denise Aguilar Mendez, stated she wasn’t going to run until the Villapuduas switched spots.
“I went in to put my name in the hat once that news dropped,” Mendez said. “I don’t think that people should be running unopposed. I think there needs to be conversations on their positions, there needs to be engagement with the community. Nobody should be running unopposed. So, I didn’t think I had a better chance (than against Carlos). I just wanted to see if we can bring some kind of change to our district.”
Ransom also acknowledged to Stocktonia that she had engaged with McNerney, whom she describes as “a mentor and friend for many years,” in conversations about Edith and Carlos Villapudua possibly switching races and that McNerney was aware she may also switch.
While the Democratic Party has not made an official endorsement in either race, McNerney and Ransom have endorsements from local democratic organizations. Ransom had also been endorsed by the state party while she was running for the 5th Senate District, but was unable to carry that over into the assembly race.
The Democratic Party could not issue endorsements so late in the game, McNerney said.
When Carlos Villapudua was reelected to the assembly in 2022, he gathered 60 percent of the vote and beat fellow Democrat Veronica Vargas in the general election. In 2020, he won the seat by defeating Kathy Miller, also a Democrat.
Smith said McNerney is a good candidate to come in at the last minute because of name recognition and a built-in base of support. He believes there’s a good chance that only one of the Democrats will end up on the ballot in November in both races.
“Republicans are going to vote for the Republican candidate. Democrats will split,” Smith told Stocktonia last month. “So, the top two candidates, which is what our system is, will probably be … the Republican candidate and then whichever of the two Democrats comes out on top.”
That’s what Shoemaker is counting on. He did briefly consider once again running for congress – he finished third in the primary two years ago – but picked the state senate and feels confident going into election day.
“You have those factions in the Democratic Party,” Shoemaker said. “Jerry is in one faction, the more progressive faction, and Carlos is in the other faction. Although Carlos isn’t that middle of the road guy he presents himself as. He’s very progressive. I feel that with the amount of grassroots campaigning we’ve done, we’re in great shape”
Both McNerney and Villapudua describe themselves as moderate Democrats — but they wouldn’t necessarily classify the other as such.
“I wouldn’t call him a moderate,” Villapudua said, noting that he is more to the left. “Maybe more like a Bay Area-type moderate, if that.”
McNereny says there’s a difference in what constitutes a moderate in Sacramento compared to Washington D.C.
“A Washington moderate is a moderate,” McNerney said. “In Sacramento, a moderate is pretty conservative.”
Of the state senate district’s nearly 600,000 registered voters, Democrats makeup the largest voting block at about 44%. Republicans come in second at just about 27%. The gap between Republicans and Democrats is even wider in the assembly district (49-22).
“Even in 2022, when Republicans did particularly well in and around Stockton and San Joaquin (County), both of those districts voted overwhelmingly democratic,” Smith said. “So whoever wins the democratic fight is going to, in all likelihood, be the person elected … and especially on the assembly side given who is running against them.”
The primary race is the one that matters in this election for Democrats, McNerney told Stocktonia last month. Like Smith, McNerney predicts that Republican candidate Jim Shoemaker will make it through to the primaries.
But Shoemaker is unlikely to win overall, he says.
“Which makes the primary the critical race for (Villapudua) and myself,” McNerney said. “Whoever of us … comes out of the top two is probably going to be the state senator.”
However, Shoemaker believes that a Republican has a good chance of winning in the district.
“We feel our campaign represents the majority of the district. We’re for the working man,” Shoemaker said. “For example, the top of the trades (unions) might be with the Democrats, but the rank-and-file workers are with me.”
Mendez also believes she will do well with crossover voters and that she could win a general election. All three candidates in the assembly race are untested politically at the state level.
Carlos Villapudua said his wife is more than ready to represent his district in the assembly.
“She has a ton of experience,” Villapudua said. “She was around me as a county supervisor. She ran my campaign. She was my treasurer. …She’s very articulate and smart.”
Edith Villapudua did not immediately respond to a request for an interview by Stocktonia.
Ransom served on the planning commission for the city of Tracy and on the Tracy City Council. She previously ran for the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors in 2020, advancing to the general election and losing to Robert Rickman.
She is more prepared for the office than her opponents, Ransom said, pointing out what she feels is a key difference between her and Edith Villapudua.
“I’ve been serving this community for two decades, and I’ve not seen her actually serving the community,” Ransom said. “I’ve seen her husband in his elected position. And now suddenly you have Edith, who has the same donors. And my concern is that it looks very self-serving that we only get two state legislative seats and one family is working really hard to take the voice away from this community.”
Smith said he would be hard pressed to pick a favored Democrat in each race, and noted he doesn’t have access to the candidates’ internal polling. But he expects only one Democrat in each race will get good news from the voters.